Page 31 - kpiebook65053

“ประเทศไทยในอนาคต Future Thailand : มิติที่ 2 สังคม ชนบท ท้องถิ่น” โดย สถาบันพระปกเกล้า

decline in the sense of community as well as a shortage of natural resources. There will be
resource, social, and health problems. Morbidity and mortality from non-communicable

diseases (NCDs) will increase. This is a low social quality society.
In these four scenarios, the most desirable, feasible scenario which is suitable
for Thai rural society is the sustainable and balanced society.

Discussion

The result of this study indicates the significant issues that are derived from national
development. Younger generations in rural areas have become less interested in working in
the agricultural sector, especially the new generation of work force aged between 15-24
years old. In 2012, the younger generation workforce accounted for approximately 4.2

percent of the country's workforce, while the workforce aged between 25-39 years
accounted for 10.5 percent. Combining the two groups, they account for 14.7 percent of the
national workforce. By 2031, this group of people will be 35-59 years old. The majority of
the current population under the age of 15 will likely refuse to enter the agricultural sector

at all, meaning that Thailand will only have about 15 percent of the workforce in the
agricultural sector.
The new generation of workers tends to work in the service and industrial sectors

while capitalism has resulted in the creation of a market economy in rural society. Rural
society has transitioned to become a small family structure. Currently, Thailand's total
fertility rate (TFR) is approximately 1.5, and if this continues for the next 10 to 20 years, for
every two people there will be a population replacement of only 1.5 people, potentially
resulting in a decline of the rural population over the next 10 to 20 years. One quarter of

young people will grow up in a new environment where there may be little concern for
local social quality. The new generation only focuses on earning money and accumulating
wealth. Their behaviors shift to seek income rather than agriculture for economic stability.

There will be growing conflict between different groups in the community. Trust in each
other will decline, reflecting the weakening of the rural community institutions. Rural society
will be unable to function and be less strong and supportive compared to the past.
Meanwhile, with Thailand becoming an aging society, the demographic likelihood has

become a new social problem for rural society, which will worsen over time. If this trend
continues for another 20 years, rural societies may become unhappy or mixed societies,
which are further explained below.
An unhappy society is an unbalanced society where there is severe inequality.

People are in debt and unable to be self-sufficient. Concurrently, society has deep
polarization and conflicts. People only look out for their own interests and seek materialism
and money. The patronage system grows becomes highly important in the society. In
addition, the resources in rural society are spent entirely on the industrial sector. People in

30