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3. There is a potential dissonance and tension between
the long-term structural transformation of an economy and
sustainable liberal democracy.

The long time horizon, uneven benefits and costs, and the
inherent uncertainty of the structural transformation of an economy such
as Thailand, are up against the shorter timetable and uncertain
outcomes of a democratic political process. This involves periodic
elections either at regular intervals (e.g. as the U.S. presidential
system), or what may be a more uncertain schedule (e.g. as the British
parliamentary system), often reflecting shifting societal interests,
expectations, and preferences.

In this context, it is worth noting that just the preparatory phase
of complex infrastructure projects takes, on average, around eight years,
well beyond the standard four year democratic political cycle. For
example, building and commissioning Bangkok’s elevated train (BTS)
took over twelve years. Significant institutional reforms, for example of
education and innovation systems, are likely to take longer. Furthermore,
private investors, the expected driver of Thailand’s (and Southeast
Asia’s) economic transformation, such as the EEC, prefer governments
with predictable policies not subject to frequent changes. Policy stability,
meaning coherence of policy decisions over time, is essential for such
long-term investment.

The usual discussion of the relationship between economics and
politics looks for causal links between democracy and market-based
economic growth. The empirical literature has not been able to provide
a clear-cut logical connection. In this context, it is useful to take a brief
look at the East Asian experience. This region has achieved historically
unprecedented sustained economic growth, development, and
transformation over an extended time horizon, particularly in the period
from the 1970s to the 1990s. In East Asian development thought
growth has been the central objective of policies and resource
mobilization; generally supported by an elite technocracy in the
formulation and implementation of policies.

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