Page 73 - kpi18886
P. 73
65
4. The dissonance between the long-term structural
transformation of an economy and sustainable liberal
democratic politics is particularly important and challenging
in the present global environment.
Thailand, as the rest of Asia, is embarking on a fundamental
transformation of its economy in the midst of continuing global
uncertainty, volatility and change. Growth prospects of the world
economy are clouded over the medium- and longer-term by uncertain
global demand; unsure financial flows to emerging economies;
continuing low commodity prices; and the impact of disruptive
technologies on global production and employment. This, in turn, is also
shaping attitudes with respect to democracy as a political system.
The IMF in its October 2017 World Economic Outlook has
forecast somewhat higher global economic growth rates of 3.6 – 3.7%
for 2017-2018. But its real message is in the title of the report:
“Seeking Sustainable Growth: Short-Term Recovery, Long-Term
14
Challenges”. It suggests that the recovery may be short-lived, given
longer-term uncertainty and risks to the global economy.
International trade growth volumes have fallen and continued to
lag since the 2008 Global Crisis. Although there are optimistic signs,
they are forecast to continue to fall significantly below global GDP
growth in coming years. It is not clear where market demand will come
from to drive sustained future global growth.
In 25 advanced economies, the primary final markets for East
Asia’s exports that have driven past growth, incomes have stagnated or
fallen for 65 – 70% of households during the period 2005 – 2014; for
15
the first time on such scale since the stagflation of the 1970s. As
14 International Monetary Fund, 2017. World Economic Outlook, October 2017.
Seeking Sustainable Growth: Short-Term Recovery, Long-Term Challenges, IMF,
Washington D.C., October.
15 McKinsey Global Institute, 2016. POORER THAN THEIR PARENTS? FLAT OR
FALLING INCOMES IN ADVANCED ECONOMIES. McKinsey and Company, July.
ปาฐกถานำ
