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Commodity prices have fallen significantly, and are expected to
remain low in coming years. For example, agricultural commodity prices
dropped over 20% since their peak in 2011, and are not expected to
increase much in the medium term. This benefits resource importers, but
not Southeast Asian exporters such as Thailand. 17

Disruptive technologies, much of it involving smart manufacturing
including robots, are restructuring industries and jobs. A recent McKinsey
study concludes that adaptation of just the present automation
technologies could affect half the world economy and jobs. Similarly,
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the International Labour Organization (ILO) 2016 study of ASEAN
suggests that as much as half the workers in selected ASEAN
economies are at risk of losing their jobs (Cambodia, Indonesia,
Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam). Although such projections are always
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speculative, high-risk sectors include garments, automobiles and parts,
electrical and electronic goods – all key pieces of Thailand’s and the
regions’ manufactures and exports. As an example, Adidas using
additive manufacturing, or 3-D printing, set up two “Speedfactories” in
Germany, and Atlanta, each to produce 500,000 pairs of shoes
annually. This eliminates 1,000 jobs in Vietnam, and creates 160
technician jobs each in Germany and Atlanta. Knowledge work is also at
risk. For example, the Mizuho Financial Group, one of Japan’s leading
mega-banks, is planning to accelerate the use of digital and robotics
technology in its operations -- and cut 19,000 jobs in the coming years.

The evolving and turbulent global economic environment, of
shifting globalization and new disruptive technologies, has had important
implications for politics in general, and liberal democracy in particular.

17 Constantinescu, Cristina, Aaditya Mattoo, and Michele Ruta, 2017. Trade
Developments in 2016. Global Trade Watch. World Bank, Washington D.C
18 McKinsey Global Institute, 2017. A Future That Works: Automation,
Employment and Productivity. McKinsey and Company, January.
19 Jae-Hee Chang and Phu Huynh, 2016. ASEAN in Transformation: The Future of
Jobs at Risk of Automation. Bureau for Employers’ Activities, Working Paper No 9,
International Labour Organization, Geneva, July.

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