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“ประเทศไทยในอนาคต Future Thailand : มิติที่ 2 สังคม ชนบท ท้องถิ่น” โดย สถาบันพระปกเกล้า

6. Creating Alternatives: Creation of options for the future.
7. Transforming: Explored the future through the past landscape of Thai

politics and government. How the future should be adjusted to present challenges and in
what ways situations should be managed to prevent future risks.
The deep casual layered analysis (DCLA) process consisted of ten elements: 1)
Present; 2) Problems; 3) Causes; 4) Discourse/Worldviews; 5) Myth/Metaphor; 6) Risks; 7)

Desired Future; 8) Scenarios/ Choices; 9) Pros and Cons; and 10) Desired Policies.
Findings

Since 1957, the context of rural society has changed continuously in terms of social
and economic structures, cultural aspects, population, and ecology. The following section
summarizes the various changes which have occurred.

Social and economic structure
Since the first economic development plan was primarily aimed at economic

development and growth to spread prosperity to other areas, this involved development of
infrastructure and public utilities. Priority was given to economic development and industrial
investment which resulted in changes in the production plan, and involved a transition from
traditional self-sufficient production to economical production. Consequently, the income of

rural individuals increased and the number of people earning incomes below the poverty
line decreased. Nonetheless, expenses and debt problems continued to increase. To change
the production plan, it was necessary to use more technology and chemicals while the need
for household labor decreased. The birth rate also fell resulting in smaller family sizes. The

younger generation is more highly educated and their values and intended career paths
have also changed to focus on the service and industrial sectors, resulting in a shortage of
agricultural workers. Subsequently, the majority of labor in rural areas consist of older
individuals, mostly the elderly.

The production pattern changes have affected the natural environment and soil fertility in some
locations has fallen. Rural households depend on their natural environment as a food source, yet
economic exploitation of agricultural production has damaged the environment, making rural people no
longer able to depend on their natural environment. Instead, rural people rely on urban means of
sustenance.

Culture

In the process of rural development and change, the values of motherhood have
shifted, in which rural families now tend to have fewer children and the family size has
shrunk. The new generation values working in the city, and as parents migrate to the service

and industries sectors in urban areas, the elderly members of rural communities are required
to care for the children. In addition, older individuals also account for most of the workforce
in rural areas. Subsequently, family structures have become more fragile and weaker. For

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