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“ประเทศไทยในอนาคต Future Thailand : มิติที่ 2 สังคม ชนบท ท้องถิ่น” โดย สถาบันพระปกเกล้า

All three factors were used to analyze the impacts on the social quality of local rural
society. Social quality can be divided into four areas: Socio-economic security; social

cohesion; social inclusion; and social empowerment. These were used to analyze social
quality change and create a landscape scenario for future planning in the next 5-20 years.
Five data collection methods were used: 1) In-depth Interviews with experts; 2) rapid rural
appraisal assessment (RRA); 3) review of literature and related theoretical concepts; 4) collection of
statistical data; and 5) group discussion and workshop.
For the in-depth interviews, the research team interviewed 32 experts from various sectors,
including academia, politics, civil society, NGOs, villagers, private sector, senior executives, religious
leaders, media, and youths. In addition, the rapid rural appraisal (RRA) was used to study the four types of
rural society in four regions of the country, dividing it into 16 areas and information was collected from
192 people. The data collection consisted of:
st
 1 type of rural society: 1) Banmaekopee, Khun Yuam District, MaeHong Son;
2) Ban Pha Tang, Pong District, Phayao; 3) Ban Choeng Doi, Kut Bak District,

Sakon Nakhon; and 4) Khao Phra community, Rattaphum District, Songkhla.
nd
 2 type of rural society: 1) KohKerd Subdistrict Administrative Organization,
Bang Pa-in District, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya; 2) Bangrieang Community,
Khuan Niang District, Songkhla; 3) Mae Chawa, Mae Chai District, Phayao; and
4) Ban HongSim, Phu Pan District, Sakon Nakhon.
rd
 3 type of rural society: 1) Ban Tard, Chiang Kham District, Phayao; 2) Ban
Chiang Khruea, Sakhon Nakhon; 3) Khuan Lang Community, Hat Yai District,
Songkhla; and 4) Bangnomko Subdistrict Municipality, Sena District, Phra
Nakhon Si Ayutthaya.

 4 type of rural society: 1) Ban Nongwang Khon Kaen; 2) Taling Chan
th
community, Chana District, Songkhla; 3) Yothaka community, Bang Nam Priao
District, Chachoengsao; and 4) Bang Ban District, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya.

To project the scenarios and plan for desired future scenarios, a foresight study and
deep casual layered analysis was conducted to analyze both qualitative and quantitative
data and conduct content analysis and simulation.
The foresight study model consisted of seven steps:

1. Mapping: Collection of past, present, and future information with different
tools.
2. Model Development: Study of the relationship between variables through
system dynamics theory and creating a causal loop diagram.

3. Anticipating: The future was forecast through various methods such as
problem analysis.
4. Timing: Predicting when situations could occur in the future.
5. Deepening: In-depth study using foresight methodology that can be applied

in many situations (causal layered analysis).

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