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“ประเทศไทยในอนาคต Future Thailand : มิติที่ 2 สังคม ชนบท ท้องถิ่น” โดย สถาบันพระปกเกล้า

Executive Summary

King Prajadhipok’s Institute has worked on the research project entitled, ‘Future
Thailand: Rural Society’ which looks at the next 5-20 years in the future. The research has
three main objectives: 1) To study the condition of rural society in the past and in the

future; 2) To create scenarios for rural society that could potentially occur in the future and
examine the risks that could arise within each scenario; and 3) To suggest appropriate policy
to accommodate future potential changes and mitigate possible risks.
This research on rural society is divided into four elements:

1. Traditional Community: Society with a mode of production focused
primarily on agriculture. These groups continue to use traditional cultivation and have
experienced few changes and little development. These groups continue to preserve
traditional modes of production and follow an agricultural lifestyle.

2. Hybrid Rural Community: Society with a mixed structure including both
agricultural modes of production, service economy, and tourism with some economic
development. In this society, the mode of production and traditional lifestyle tend to be
diluted.

3. Semi-Urban Community: Society located not far from urban areas. This
type of society is more economically dependent on the urban than the rural economy.
There is development and public infrastructure similar to that of urban areas. These

societies are transforming to become urban areas.
4. Government-led Development Area: Society with a development plan
and policies from the government. There are large development plans, special economic
areas, industrial estates, and high-speed tracks.
The study of changes in rural society in the future divided into four periods: 1) 5-year

period (2019-2024); 2) 10-year period (2024-2029); 3) 15-year period (2029-2034); and 4) 20-
year period (2034-2039).
The factors affecting the quality of rural society can be divided into three categories

according to the analysis of impacts of changes on the quality of rural society, namely the
context of rural society, internal factors, and external factors.
The context of rural society consists of: 1) Social and economic structural variables;
2) cultural change variables; 3) population variables; and 4) ecological variables. The internal

factor category consists of: 1) Political variables; 2) 20-year national strategy variables; 3)
constitutional variables of the Kingdom of Thailand; 4) reform plan variables; 5) national
economic and social development plan variables; and 6) various government policies. The
external factors consist of: 1) Variables of globalization; 2) variables of global climate change;

3) variables of the COVID-19 pandemic; 4) variables of changes in world order, global politics,
the global economy, and society; and 5) variables of technology and digital transformation.

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